Bitcoin Almanac [WillyAlgoTrader] — Indicator by WillyAlgoTrader (2026)

Bitcoin Almanac: Unlocking the Macro Landscape of Bitcoin

In the world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin stands as a beacon of innovation, and its price movements are often shrouded in mystery. But what if there was a way to decode the macro landscape of Bitcoin, revealing its hidden rhythms and patterns? Enter Bitcoin Almanac, an innovative indicator by WillyAlgoTrader that does just that. This powerful tool maps the entire Bitcoin macro landscape on one chart, offering a comprehensive view of its cycles, turning points, and potential price movements.

The Core Insight

At the heart of Bitcoin Almanac lies a remarkable observation: Bitcoin's completed cycles exhibit a consistent time rhythm, with roughly 1064 days of bull phases and 364 days of bear phases. This consistent pattern is further emphasized by a decelerating growth pattern, which is beautifully captured by a hyperbola in log-price space. These observations, while not laws of nature, provide a solid foundation for making concrete, falsifiable reference points.

The Components and Their Magic

Bitcoin Almanac is a symphony of components working in harmony. Let's explore each one and uncover its unique contribution:

Cycle Time Model: This component answers the question of 'when' rather than 'at what price.' It uses a fixed-length cycle time model, with the anchor date and phase lengths being user-defined. This ensures that the model is not tied to real-time price action, eliminating the possibility of repainting.
Hyperbolic Curve through Cycle Lows: This curve is fitted through historical cycle lows, providing a visual representation of where support might migrate. It's a geometry-based approach, not a statistical one, ensuring a precise fit through the pivots.
Second Independent Hyperbola through Cycle Highs: This curve captures the decelerating growth pattern at cycle tops. By fitting it independently, the model can express a narrowing channel without assuming its shape.
Cycle × Curve Intersection Labels: These labels mark the projected bottom and top dates with their respective curve prices, offering testable predictions.
Macro Fibonacci Grids: These grids provide user-defined levels, with the 0.786-0.836 accumulation zone highlighted as a buy zone. The zone's time-bounded nature adds a layer of realism.
Distribution Zones: These zones are tied to the cycle skeleton, with sell zones around each high. The time span is calculated based on the latest enabled low or the model's cycle bottom.
Bull-Path Projection: This component replays the previous bull phase in log space, offering a hypothetical path for the next bull leg. It's a scenario generator, not a forecast.
Corrections Table: This table lists every macro drawdown since 2014, including the unfinished one, providing a historical perspective on ongoing declines.
Full-Transparency Dashboard: The dashboard offers a comprehensive view, with toggleable sections for Cycle, Projection, Corrections, and Ranges. It includes a phase gauge, projected turn dates, curve prices, and a hypothetical PNL for the next bull leg.

The Calculation Flow

Bitcoin Almanac's power lies in its calculation flow, which can be broken down into several steps:

Parse Pivots: Enabled lows and highs are converted to (days-from-first-pivot, log10(price)) pairs.
Fit the Curves: Each set is fitted to log10(price) = a + b/(c - t), with exact solutions for 3 points and least-squares searches for 4+ points.
Phase Every Bar: Calendar-time modulo against the anchor determines the bull/bear phase, day-in-phase, and timestamps for bottoms and tops.
Evaluate Intersections: The lows curve at the projected bottom and the highs curve at the projected top become the model's price targets.
Record the Reference Bull: Confirmed closes are stored as (progress, log10 price) during the anchor cycle's bull phase.
Draw (Once per Bar): Turn lines, labels, hyperbolas, grids, boxes, halvings, projected path, dashboard, and watermark are drawn once per bar.
Alert: Phase flips and pre-turn countdown fire alert() calls on confirmed bars.

How to Use Bitcoin Almanac

Getting started with Bitcoin Almanac is straightforward:

Open the INDEX:BTCUSD chart on the Weekly timeframe with a regular (linear) price scale. The model is calibrated there, and the dashboard shows a ✓ when the symbol and timeframe match.
Add the indicator, and the green/red background will immediately show the model's current phase. The dashboard displays the day count and progress gauge.
Locate the two ◎ labels, representing the projected bottom and top dates with their respective curve prices.
Check the yellow boxes for the buy and sell zones, which are time-bounded by the cycle end date and high ± sellPct.
Create an alert with the condition 'Any alert() function call' to receive phase flips and pre-turn countdown notifications.

Reading the Chart

Understanding the chart is key to unlocking Bitcoin Almanac's potential:

🟢 Green background = bull phase; 🔴 red = bear phase
Solid green verticals = cycle bottoms; dashed red verticals = cycle tops; future turns are labeled ★ PROJECTED and drawn brighter
🟠 Orange curve = hyperbola through cycle lows (solid to projected bottom, dashed extension)
🔴 Red curve = hyperbola through cycle highs (solid to projected top, dashed extension)
Small circles = exact pivots each curve is built from
◎ labels = cycle × curve intersections with date, ≈ price, and fit info
Fib grids between macro pivots with price and ratio labels
🟡 Yellow boxes = buy and sell zones, with '(proj.)' indicating auto-generated zones at projected tops
⛏ Grey verticals = halvings; the 2028 line is dashed and marked '(est.)'
🔵 Blue dashed path = hypothetical next-bull trajectory with its ◇ end label

Dashboard Fields

The dashboard offers a wealth of information:

Phase, Phase day, and Progress: Current model phase, day within it, and a 10-segment gauge
Proj. top/bottom: Projected turn dates, days remaining, and curve prices
Next leg PNL: Hypothetical bottom→top move of the next bull leg in % and as a × multiple
Corrections: Completed macro drawdowns since 2014 and the unfinished one projected to the curve bottom
Next buy/sell range: Price boundaries of the nearest upcoming accumulation and distribution zones

Tuning Guide

Tuning Bitcoin Almanac to your preferences is simple:

Curve Doesn't Draw: Enable at least 3 lows or highs with sensible dates/prices.
Disagree with Pivot Price: Edit pivot dates and prices, and the curves and grids will update instantly.
Match Actual Price Low: Switch the anchor to 21 Nov 2022 for dates matching actual price lows.
Fib Levels on Log Chart: Enable 'Log-scale levels' for accurate fib levels on a log chart.
Crowded Chart: Disable individual modules or dashboard sections to create a cleaner view.
Explore 2030+: Enable 'Show 2nd projected cycle' for additional bottom/top pairs with doubled uncertainty.

Trading Ideas

Bitcoin Almanac opens up a world of trading possibilities:

Accumulation Planning: Scale into the 0.786-0.836 buy zone during the bear phase, with the zone's right edge indicating the model's deadline.
Distribution Planning: Scale out inside the ±5% sell zone as the projected top date approaches, with the pre-alert giving a heads-up.
Scenario Testing: Move pivots, change phase lengths, or force highs to your target and observe the model's response. It's a sandbox for exploring scenarios.

Key Settings

Cycle Model: Anchor, phase lengths, cycles to draw, and show 2nd projected cycle
Visual Settings: Theme, phase background, cycle turn lines, turn labels, and watermark
Dashboard: Position, font size, and per-section switches

Hyperbola - Lows and Highs

Lows: 3 main cycle lows and 3 optional early-history lows, with dashed extensions, curve color, and anchor-point markers
Highs: 4 cycle highs and a spare projected slot, extension, and curve color

Fibonacci Grids

Bull and Bear Grids: Separate colors for bull and bear grids, with user-defined levels and extensions
Highlight 0.786-0.836 Zone: Enable this for the buy zone
Log-scale Levels: Use this for accurate fib levels on a log chart
Reverse: Keep this ON for classic retracement on a bull leg

Halvings

Lines and Labels: Toggles and color settings for halving lines and labels

Sell Zones

Toggle, Color, and Zone Size: Customize the sell zones to your preference

Price Projection

Toggle and Path Shape: Choose between replay last bull and log-linear path shapes

Alerts

Master Switch, Webhook Format, and Pre-alert Days: Customize alerts to your needs

Important Notes

No Repainting: The model's claims are fully falsifiable in advance, with no repainting.
Sample Size: The model is based on 3 completed cycles, with statistical claims relying on three observations.
Calibrated Chart: Use INDEX:BTCUSD, Weekly, regular (linear) price scale. Exchange charts start later and distort early-history fits.
Scope: Bitcoin Almanac is a macro-cycle framework, not an intraday trading tool.
Disclaimer: It's a cycle-analysis and scenario-visualization tool, not an automated trading bot. Trade decisions remain yours.

Bitcoin Almanac is a powerful tool for understanding Bitcoin's macro landscape. It offers a unique perspective on cycles, turning points, and price movements, providing valuable insights for traders and analysts alike. With its comprehensive dashboard and customizable settings, Bitcoin Almanac empowers users to explore the hidden rhythms of Bitcoin and make informed decisions in the world of cryptocurrency.